LOCAL

SHOULD DPP IDENTIFY BINGU’S SUCCESSOR NOW?.... YES, THE EARLIER, THE BETTER BY ZAKEYO B.K. MWASE Months prior to the last general elections, political analysts and commentators urged the United Democratic Front (UDF) to start bracing itself for the elections by choosing the party’s torchbearer because there were doubts hovering over Bakili Muluzi’s eligibility to contest due to the fact that he had already served his maximum ten years as he was required by the Republican Constitution. Muluzi himself was not saying anything on whether time was ripe for his party to choose its leader. He had nothing to worry about. He had something under his sleeves; he was the torchbearer his party was seeking. And he expressly said that the masses wanted him to rule this country again and that therefore he would not go against the will of his supporters. Whether this was true or not is open to debate. But the fact of the matter is that the commentators sensed a horrible block in Muluzi’s way but he chose to ignore their advice. His party held a convention where the UDF chairman was re-elected as the party’s presidential candidate for the elections which were to come later. He defeated a then beleaguered UDF top member Cassim Chilumpha by a very wide margin. To him that showed that the majority was behind him. He cared very little whether or not the law was behind him Commentators did not pull out there when Muluzi was re-elected to represent the UDF in the presidential elections. They advised the party to strategize on any possible hindrance that would come into the former Head of State’s quest for presidency. Muluzi and his party ignored the advice. Of course on the part of the ‘other’ UDF members, there was nothing they would do or say because Muluzi was the sole financier of the party. The political commentators and analysts saw something that would bar Muluzi from contesting in the elections and advised his party to have plan B that should be implemented in case of Muluzi failing to contest. Muluzi and his UDF rejected the advice. The UDF chair thought he would use his army of lawyers to interfere with the law. But it never worked to his wish. His nomination was rejected by the Malawi Electoral Commission and his appeal case against the same flopped as well. This happened only a few days before the election day. By then MEC had already closed the door for any more nominations. And what was left as Muluzi’s last option to use to dislodge President Bingu wa Mutharika from the top most seat was to enter into a last minute election coalition with the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). This was after the UDF failed to feature their own candidate, and Muluzi could not bow out there because he was eager to “deflate the tube that he had inflated himself.” Now the commentators and analysts had nothing to worry about. The UDF had failed to heed their advice and they thought they had done their part by trying to reason with the stubborn political grouping. They were just comfortably commenting that the UDF/MCP alliance was not a form of alliance that would defeat the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) because it had only brought divisions in the two camps. Their comments got vindicated; the alliance brought home the worst kind of misery. Surely, this might have been the time when Muluzi and his UDF looked back to the good old days when the most needed advice had not been heeded. And the same commentators who saw doom looming in the UDF camp are in town again urging parties to start identifying the party’s prospective leaders towards the 2014 elections. But the issue is bent more towards the ruling DPP than any other party because its current leader is having his last time at the posh State House. The question most people ask now is whether or not it is being realistic to argue that the DPP should identify Bingu’s potential successor now. What the UDF went through prior to the May 19 general elections has become a benchmark of measuring pros and cons of delaying to choose a party’s torchbearer. UDF’s mistake is made to act as an education to other parties. After all, no party would want to be caught napping as did the former ruling party, not even itself. The law which barred Muluzi from having a third term is the same law that bars Mutharika from having another go in 2014. Hence the issue of the president’s successor cannot be undermined. Mutharika has nothing to lose if his party identifies his successor now. He has worked with a considerable number of big DPP gurus since he was elected into office five years ago and by now he has fully analysed their potential. That is why Dr. Blessings Chinsinga, a Political Science Lecturer at Chancellor College see the exclusion from cabinet of some big names as a way of sieving the DPP so that any one who has some connections to other parties is cast away. Now, that Mutharika has a crop that he is satisfied with, it would be more significant if he allowed his party to identify now who should succeed him after he retires. This is a challenging position which enough needs time so that the prospective candidate should be dully groomed. Just as Chinsinga observes, there are many prospective candidates within the ruling party who can succeed Mutharika. As such, it is important that the lucky one is identified now so that those who were hoping for the same should grin and bear it and forget everything. Any delay is likely to bring divisions in the party. The party needs to identify Mutharika’s successor so that it will not be “spoilt for choice” when the election draws nigh. As a matter of fact, one individual has to be identified and Mutharika should have the task of grooming him/her other than focusing on all those who aspire for the position. Identifying Bingu’s successor will also allow the ruling party to popularize him/her. As a potential leader of the whole country, it is important that the masses recognise him/her now and this will be an added advantage unlike when s/he is chosen later. The leader will have enough time to be sold out to the voting citizenry if s/he is identified now. So the earlier, the better. Mutharika should not have outspokenly condemned his ministers for allegedly positioning themselves ahead of the 2014 elections because such a thing is very normal. Does the president expect them to keep a low profile when they know that they have a chance of leading this country? Now that they lucidly know that Mutharika will be biding farewell to the State House in 2014, it is normal for them to start positioning themselves for the next elections. What should prevent them from aspiring? Much as this may be seen as an action started too soon, we have to be mindful of the fact that the aspirants want to know where they are. And the earlier the better. In fact general party democracy cannot fault the aspirants for positioning themselves for possible identification. Let them be identified now so that they can brace themselves for the arduous task of leading the party. We do not need to labour the point that Bingu will soon be out and new blood will have to take over. Bingu’s blasting of the cabinet ministers leads many to fearing the president might want to use his overwhelming mandate in the National Assembly to tamper with the Constitution. After all, Muluzi’s case as well started as mere rumours aimed at tainting the image of the former head of state; but finally the rumours culminated into reality. We do not need any reason to fear that the Bingu rumours, just like the Muluzi rumours, might also translate into a true story. But if the one to lead DPP was identified now, we would comfortably believe that State House’s blasting of the rumours as idle talk from some disgruntled individuals is practical. With so many DPP top members eyeing the party’s top seat, it would be wise for the president to encourage them to begin selling themselves to the masses publicly so that they gain popularity, other than blasting them. Maybe the president is against the idea of ministers positioning themselves ahead of the 2014 elections because he wants to dictate who should lead ‘his’ party. This is not a good thing for the party’s democracy. People sometimes do react disastrously. Let the DPP identify Mutharika’s prospective successor now so that s/he has enough time to popularize himself/herself. What will the party lose by identifying the leader now? Nothing. And in this case, it is the earlier, the better. NO, A THOROUGH ASSESSMENT IS REQUIRED. BY CHIZAMSOKA MUGHOGHO There is nothing more that remains after a general election has taken place other than strategizing on the next election. After all, when elected individuals begin to mull over how they can work sufficiently towards fulfilling the pledges they made during the time of campaign, there is an underlying factor that they work towards putting themselves or their respective parties in a comfort zone as long as the next election is concerned. These winners try to consolidate their popularity so that they do not get out of the reach of the electorate. Much as the elected individuals claim to work towards the upgrading of citizen’s welfare, they also work towards sustaining their future political welfares as well. They know that as long as they wish to be re-elected in the next election, there is need for them to be in perfect relationships with the electorate. This is an underground form of campaign. Campaign for election or re-election begins soon after winners and losers have been identified. Otherwise, by preparing feasts as a way of thanking the electorate for voting them into power, politicians only try to score a point so that next time the electorate should consider them again. There are instances where current elected individuals may not be eligible for contesting in the elections again. These may involve factors to do with legal requirements or just old age. Still more, there is need to put into place good strategies for the sake of the successors, especially in cases of presidents. Party presidents need to have the welfare of their respective parties at heart even if they will no longer lead the party after a certain period. It should be a blow to their conscience if their party fails to perform impressively during elections because the leader did not put into place good strategies. A normal party leader will have a peaceful rest after the time of leading his party expires if his/her successor inherits a strong and vibrant party. It should be left to the successor to either strengthen the party further or destroy it. As required by our laws, president Bingu wa Mutharika will pack his wares and leave the sweet State House in 2014 and obviously someone else will compete on the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ticket in the presidential elections. This is a thing that cannot be eschewed, and as such, commentators and analysts have urged the DPP to identify a prospective torchbearer for the party. The fact that the DPP proved to be a force to reckon with just a few months after its inception speaks volumes of the party’s sound leadership. Mutharika proved to be a skillful leader by driving a party that had never been there only a few months ago, to a massive victory in the 2005 by-elections. And things did not end there. The new party on the political scene performed wonders in the May 19 general elections and all praises duly go to the party’s leadership. We cannot deny the fact that the ruling party has a daunting task of identifying who should lead it considering the fact that there is a good number of potential individuals within the party who seem to have the guts to take the leadership role. But perhaps the question that should be answered before anything else is assessed is whether DPP should identify Mutharika’s successor now. We have to be mindful of the fact that being a leader of a whole party is not a trivial thing; and it becomes more intense when the party is the ruling party. Essentially, there is going to be some kind of comparison between the predecessor and the successor. Since the predecessor will be viewed as having been successful up to making it to the State House, the successor’s failure will stand out like a sore thumb. Any ruling party in the world will have a number of high-profile members within it because on their part, there are many aspects that are likely to put them in the limelight. They are associated with the leadership of the country and there is a likelihood of them being popular among the voting citizenry. That is why it is important that the party members hold their patience before they can think of identifying its next torchbearer. There is need for a thorough assessment of all the potential candidates so that the underlying truths about them are uncovered before they may be considered for the challenging task of leading the party. Though it may not have been fully made public, it is a clear fact that most parties in Malawi are stuck in the doldrums as regards succession concerns. This is a time when every aspirant will position themselves in a situation that will convince their party members that they are the eligible candidate. They will hide their true colours because of want of leadership and their party may identify them now when their true colours which are not synonymous with leadership may be revealed later. This may result into confusion. As the party will be involving an analysis of how to reposition and rebuilt itself so that it should succeed in the elections, there may be need to replace the leader with another one. And this will automatically divide the party. So it is important that there is a thorough assessment of all the aspirants before identifying who should lead the party. In the by-elections of Zomba Malosa Constituency, it was revealed that there were two DPP factions and the result was the party’s loss. This was due to the fact that some party members were not happy with the candidate who was to compete in the election. So any sort of division is very dangerous to a party. All the DPP aspirants should be left to their usual ways of conducting things. They should be made to forget that there is at all the possibility of them ever becoming their party’s leader during the elections. Thus, it will be easy for the assessment of their actual conducts and potential. When studying someone’s behaviour, it is important that you do that without the person knowing it. Then you can be able to understand them fully since it is when they go about their normal life. It is not advisable to assess someone when they are in high spirits of expectations. They may exhibit certain traits which are not naturally theirs. Hence the ruling party also needs a substantial amount of time before they can identify who should hold its mantle in the 2014 presidential election. I need to be clearly understood here; I do not intend to mean that the party should identify its torchbearer days or months before the elections. The point I am trying to drive home is that the identification should be done later, perhaps in two years to come, not now. After all, the next general elections are five years away, so why hasten to do things when the party has all the time in the world. It is wrong to think that once the DPP fails to identify Mutharika’s prospective successor now, it may be caught napping in the future as did the UDF. The UDF’s is a different scenario altogether, unless the proponents of this line of thought want us to believe that Mutharika may want to prolong his stay at the State House, and may be rejected by the courts as was the case with Muluzi. In the case of Mutharika, there are two things involved; the legal provision dealing with when a president should pack his things and go home to rest has been fully interpreted in the Muluzi case and Mutharika would make a great mistake if he attempts to tamper with this delicate provision. Another fact is that by 2014, old age will have caught up with our president and he might not be able to soldier on. It will also force him to reject opinions from bootlickers who would want him to have another go. When Muluzi imposed a little known Mutharika on Malawians, he knew that he would be able to sell him adequately to the electorate. Mutharika became popular overnight and he made it in the elections. Yet this was only a few weeks after the UDF had become so infamous for its leader’s comeback bid. And it was also a time when many UDF big gurus protested against Atcheya’s undemocratic way of choosing who should lead the party. But people still voted for Muluzi’s choice. Now with the DPP, things are just alright. It commands a great deal of support across Malawi and whenever its torchbearer is identified, the electorate will still recognise him/her. With this party that has revolutionized Malawi’s politics, it is not necessarily about the mantle carrier; it is about the party itself. As such, I totally hold the view that it would be too much haste if the DPP identified its leader now. The party needs enough time to fully assess all potential candidates. If Mutharika’s successor were identified now, the assessment would not be thorough and many underlying traits of the successor would not be discovered. This might result into confusion within the party, as the position might need to be changed.