HEALTH

Underestimating swine flu Written by James Munyapa For a couple of months now the public worldwide has been suffering from some kind of fatigue due to the constant bad news over the economic global crisis which so far, only Japan seems to be moving out of. As result of concentrating on the recession, the threat of the swine flu A (H1N1) outbreak has been to a good extent ignored. This is a highly dangerous disregard of human life and the pandemic now seems to surge with adverse results. However, alarms of warning have been sounded so that people should be aware of this dangerous virus. Some countries have gone to the extent of closing some social institutions like the school so as the prevent students from contracting the disease should one of them be infected. It is very difficult to know that someone has contracted swine flu when it is in its early stages because not everyone will be tested. Government should put serious measures so that the virus does not unnecessarily claim lives of Malawians. Swine flu should not in any way be underestimated; it is a big threat. Authorities at the international airports need to embark on a mission of screening passengers to check for swine flu symptoms. So far the epidemic of swine influenza has reported 100 deaths in Canada and the United States and more than 27,000 cases have been identified, according to the latest balance sheets delivered in both countries. On the world’s scale, swine influenza has caused 180 deaths and 44,287 patients have been identified in 95 countries and territories, according to the latest assessment of the World Health Organization (WHO) published. Everything about swine flu was initially just news to Malawi but now reports have confirmed that there are people in the country who are infected. The problem remains that the pandemic was being underestimated and we thought it would never come to Malawi, as we mostly think some of these pandemics are for foreign countries. In a paper published in the British Medical Journal, researchers have called for improved data to map the spread of swine flu and to make accurate estimates of the number of people likely to be infected with the virus and to die from it. This is all intended to alert governments so that all the measures to deal with the virus are put in place. In some countries where the flu has been prevalent researchers argue that death rates are underestimated because deaths are attributed to other seemingly unrelated causes besides swine flu, or because of the delay between symptom onset and death. They also argue that death rates of swine flu might be underestimated because some cases may die from other ailments which might have but been precipitated by the virus. These cases are not counted as swine flu cases, hence the underestimation. Of course in other countries experts have found that people could be dying of swine flu in hospitals but having their cause of death listed as something else. The experts have observed that swine flu death rates could be skewed because many sufferers are not contacting health services and are looking after themselves at home. This could be the case even here in Malawi. There could be many cases of swine flu which will obviously go unrecorded if the patients don’t seek medical attention. The Ministry of Health can score a first if it embarks on a task of sensitizing Malawians on the signs and symptoms of swine flu so that those with potential attacks of the virus may seek medical attention as soon as possible. Swine flu is a contagious disease and so it can be easily contracted. Malawi is a tourist destination and more and more tourist are flooding the country following the recent mysterious death of one Brazilian who got lost in Mulanje Mountain only to be found dead a couple of days later. So it is absurd to expect the country to remain free from the virus when it is in constant contact with foreign people. And on the other hand, there are business people who travel to other countries to do their business. These are likely to bring the virus. Many Malawians visit South Africa on business grounds and South Africa is one such country in Africa with the highest prevalence of swine flu.