Reflecting on Climate Change

It has been said several times at different forums organized with the issue of climate change being at the pivot of the agenda, that the unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth’s temperature.

Ardent researchers have gone further to warn that the consequences of these greenhouse gas emissions include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. It appears this year, it has undoubtedly come here in Africa, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, that we should have a feel of what this climate change is all about.

The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere, and experts here in Malawi have already warned that the country is likely to experience hunger after this growing season.

Undoubtedly, agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. This has already been vindicated in many areas where farmers are at a risk of not harvesting anything because the rains are not coming. In other areas, even though the rains have started coming, farmers have already given up because they feel that the growing season is now over.

On the other hand, even in areas where rains have been sufficient, higher temperatures are eventually reducing yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. In such cases, it is impossible to have the usual bumper harvests.

Again, changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Already, it has been observed that while some areas are facing prolonged dry spells, others are receiving rains continuously. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security.

Farmers have not yet adapted to the changes in climate and it is therefore very difficult for them to sow seeds in February when what they know is that they are supposed to sow in the months of November, December and January. It may need to take the intervention of experts in the environmental fields to advise farmers that the shifting of seasons due to climate change may mean that the growing season may as well shift.

Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, like in most African countries, are likely to be the most seriously affected. A research conducted by Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reveals that in 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries, which translates to 2.5 billion people, relied on agriculture for its livelihood.

Different researches conducted on climate change in different countries of the world have also revealed that climate change is already affecting water resources, agriculture, land resources, and biodiversity, and will continue to do so. According to the researches, grain crops will mature more rapidly, but increasing temperatures will increase the risk of crop failures, particularly if precipitation decreases or becomes more variable.

Higher temperatures are affecting livestock negatively. Warmer ‘wet seasons’ will reduce mortality but this will be more than offset by greater mortality in hotter summers. Hotter temperatures will also result in reduced productivity of livestock and dairy animals. This is already being experienced in hot areas of Malawi like the Lower Shire where farmers have already started losing their livestock due to the hot temperatures.

It is up to concerned stakeholders to sensitize people on what they are supposed to do in their respective farming areas according to climate experiences which such areas are likely to meet each and every season. This may require that such sensitizations should be done now and then since climate change is not constant.

Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Thus, assessment of the effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production. So far, this appears to be the only remedy that can redress the imbalance.

Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modified organisms, and irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil properties and natural communities. That is why it is imperative that other measures other than those involving technological advances should be applied to deal with the effects of climate change.

Other researchers have concluded that the poorest countries would be hardest hit, with reductions in crop yields in most tropical and sub-tropical regions due to decreased water availability, and new or changed insect pest incidence.

In most African countries, many rain-fed crops are near their maximum temperature tolerance, so that yields are likely to fall sharply for even small climate changes. That is why, perhaps in areas where irrigation is feasible, it should be seriously encouraged.