Is DPP Losing its Grip?

A by-election is an election held to fill a political office that has become vacant between regularly scheduled elections. Usually this occurs when the incumbent has died or resigned or when during the initial scheduled election did not take place due to some inconveniences.

But it may also occur when the incumbent becomes ineligible to continue in office, for example because of a recall or a sufficiently serious criminal conviction. By-elections may also be called as a result of the initial election being invalidated due to voting irregularities.

In 2005 just a year after Bingu wa Mutharika was first voted into power thereby becoming the second democratically elected leader of the republic of Malawi, by-elections were held in five constituencies where the ruling Democratic progressive party swept all the seats.

It was a party which had just onto the political scene some months before, and yet it proved to be a force to reckon with. And came the last 19 may general elections, the DPP continued proving that it had come in full throttle. The party amassed a record 140 seats in the national assembly and its torchbearer Bingu wa Mutharika shocked may conservative Malawians who still thought political intolerance would never cease in Malawi. He scooped the largest amount of votes in all the three regions of Malawi, a thing which had never happened before.

But during the August 14 by-elections held in Blantyre’s Ndirande and Zomba Malosa Constituency, people were shocked to the core when the ruling party which had already proved to be the people’s favourite failed to send its candidates to the national assembly.

Hence comments have emanated from different quarters that the DPP is losing its grip and the loss in the by-elections is a sign of people’s protest. Those who hold the view that the DPP is losing its grip argue that this is the case due to the way the DPP-dominated parliament conducted itself during the last sitting.

According to the view, people feel they have been taken for granted and those in blantyre and Zomba, who had a way of expressing themselves, decided to show through their voting power that they were protesting against the ruling party.

According to commentators who believe that DPP’s loss in the by-elections is a sign of people’s protest, Malawians feel shortchanged in many ways. One of the ways is that the ruling party is chairing most of the parliamentary committees, as aspect people feel is not good for democracy.

As a matter of fact, proponents of the aspect that the DPP is losing its grip have all the confidence that if there were another general election in Malawi today, the DPP would fare miserably. Worldwide, there is something peculiar about by-elections. The vast majority of them are taken to be unimportant to many and voter turnouts are seldom comparable with general elections.

According to international reports on by-elections, the ruling party normally has a solid cushion so that losing a handful of seats would not affect their position. The reports continue assessing that because by-elections usually have little influence on the general governance, voters feel freer to elect smaller fringe parties.

Parties on both the far right-wing and the far left-wing tend to do better in by-elections than in general elections. However, by-elections can become crucial when the ruling party has only a small margin. In parliamentary systems, party discipline is strong enough so that the one common scenario for a vote of no confidence to occur is after the governing party loses enough by-elections to become a minority government.

A UK example was the Labour government of James Callaghan 1976-79. By-elections can also be important if a minority party needs to gain one or more seats in order to gain official party status or the balance of power in a minority or coalition situation.

In Canada, in 1978, 15 by-elections were held on a single date, restoring the House of Commons from 249 to 264 members. The media called it a "mini-election", a test of the Liberal government's popularity with a general election due in less than a year. The 15 districts stretched from Newfoundland to British Columbia, and as is seen to be the case in Malawi now, produced some surprising results.

For example, an NDP candidate won in Newfoundland for the first time. This is one of the surprises which by-elections can bring. The situation in Canada did not mean that the ruling party was losing its grip, neither did it mean voters were protesting against government.

Political and media commentators often point to by-election victories as important signals, but very often by-elections hinge far more on local issues and the charisma of the candidates than on national issues or how the voters feel about the governing party.

Nonetheless it can be shown historically that a main opposition party which performs consistently poorly in by-elections is unlikely to be a serious contender for power at the subsequent general election. And when independent candidates seem to fare well during by-election, the ruling party can continue wallowing in the comfort zone.